When it comes to Palin, ignore the 'experts'

The insiders are largely agreed: Sarah Palin isn't really running for president. She is more interested in making money and getting publicity. So her movie, bus tour, and poll numbers mean nothing. Zero. Nada. The best example of this is probably found in Byron York's column today: "The bottom line is Sarah Palin is not going to run for president," says a Republican adviser close to front-runner Mitt Romney. "She's making money, she's moved on, she's kind of an entertainer rather than a politician. She still has some sway with the grass roots, but she is not going to run." "I don't think she's going to run," says a Republican close to Tim Pawlenty. "She has faded a lot in the last few months. I look at what she's doing now and say that she's found a way to get back in the story." The obvious point here is that operatives working for Palin's rivals have an incentive to dismiss her. (Ironically, I think this might actually entice her to run.) It would be a mistake for readers to believe analysis coming from Palin's political rivals. But they're not alone. A lot of political insiders and campaign experts I talk to are convinced Palin is just in this for the attention — that she won't run because running and losing would destroy her "brand." They point to the fact that her team isn't engaged in the organizational logistics a traditional presidential campaign must have in place to win in, say, Iowa, as evidence she isn't running.